Andorra vs Ceuta
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-08-15 · 17:00 CET
LWLLL
WLLLLThe score model made an Andorra win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 5:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Andorra 1.74 – 1.05 Ceuta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andorra win | 53.4% | 57.9% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 24.1% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Ceuta win | 22.4% | 18.0% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 51.9% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.5% | 31.0% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 51.9% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 35.7% | +2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Andorra 40 / Ceuta 29.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.