Villarreal vs Levante
La Liga, Spain · 2026-09-20 · 18:30 CET
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LLDDWThe score model made a Villarreal win the most likely outcome at 65%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Villarreal 2.43 – 1.15 Levante.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal win | 65.4% | 62.8% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 18.1% | 20.3% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Levante win | 16.4% | 16.9% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.4% | 65.5% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.1% | 44.7% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | 60.5% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 55.3% | 44.1% | +11.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Villarreal 50.1 / Levante 28.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Villarreal vs Levante in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.