Valencia vs Real Sociedad
La Liga, Spain · 2026-09-20 · 21:00 CET
WLDDL
WLWWWThe score model made a Valencia win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valencia 1.35 – 1.16 Real Sociedad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia win | 41.0% | 34.4% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 28.5% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Real Sociedad win | 32.0% | 37.1% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 49.3% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 28.9% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 54.9% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.9% | 33.5% | -7.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valencia 50 / Real Sociedad 49.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Valencia vs Real Sociedad in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.