Sevilla vs Barcelona
La Liga, Spain · 2026-09-19 · 21:00 CET
WWLDL
WWWWWThe score model made a Barcelona win the most likely outcome at 65%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sevilla 1.09 – 2.34 Barcelona.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla win | 16.3% | 9.5% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.5% | 14.5% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Barcelona win | 65.3% | 75.9% | -10.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.5% | 71.7% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.7% | 52.4% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 57.9% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.7% | 50.9% | -3.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sevilla 50.1 / Barcelona 50 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sevilla vs Barcelona in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.