Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-26 · 21:00 CET
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LLWDWThe score model made a Real Madrid win the most likely outcome at 72%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 4:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.38 – 0.84 Real Sociedad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 71.7% | 78.0% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 16.9% | 14.0% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Real Sociedad win | 11.4% | 8.0% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | 69.7% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.1% | 49.9% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 52.1% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.5% | 49.6% | -6.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Real Madrid 47.5 / Real Sociedad 47.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.