Valencia vs Betis
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-25 · 21:00 CET
WDLLL
WWWLWThe score model made a Valencia win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valencia 1.28 – 1.25 Betis.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia win | 37.2% | 33.8% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 29.2% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Betis win | 36.0% | 37.0% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 45.5% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 25.6% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 52.4% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 30.1% | -1.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valencia 47.7 / Betis 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.