Elche vs Barcelona
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-23 · 21:30 CET
DDLLL
LWWWWThe score model made a Barcelona win the most likely outcome at 63%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 0:5 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Elche 1.12 – 2.24 Barcelona.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche win | 17.9% | 11.3% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.3% | 17.4% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Barcelona win | 62.8% | 71.3% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | 64.1% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.2% | 42.9% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | 53.2% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.9% | 44.1% | -0.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Elche 29.1 / Barcelona 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.