Atl. Madrid vs Villarreal
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-23 · 17:00 CET
LWDWL
WDDLLThe score model made an Atl. Madrid win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atl. Madrid 1.95 – 1.27 Villarreal.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atl. Madrid win | 53.3% | 51.6% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.8% | 25.4% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Villarreal win | 24.8% | 23.0% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | 55.7% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.4% | 34.7% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | 57.3% | +4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.5% | 37.6% | +12.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atl. Madrid 47.8 / Villarreal 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.