Valencia vs Celta Vigo
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-22 · 19:30 CET
WDLLL
DLLDDThe score model made a Valencia win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valencia 1.42 – 1.22 Celta Vigo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia win | 41.7% | 37.9% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 30.4% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Celta Vigo win | 32.6% | 31.7% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 41.9% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 22.9% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 49.2% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.8% | 28.6% | -3.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valencia 47 / Celta Vigo 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.