Espanyol vs Real Madrid
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-22 · 21:30 CET
DWLLD
WWWWLThe score model made a Real Madrid win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Espanyol 0.99 – 1.77 Real Madrid.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol win | 21.0% | 13.0% | +8.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 20.0% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Real Madrid win | 56.0% | 67.0% | -11.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 58.7% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 37.7% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | 51.7% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 38.9% | -9.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Espanyol 41.7 / Real Madrid 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.