Betis vs Real Sociedad
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-21 · 21:00 CET
WWWLW
LLWDWThe score model made a Betis win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Betis 1.79 – 1.11 Real Sociedad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betis win | 53.4% | 46.1% | +7.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 27.6% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Real Sociedad win | 23.6% | 26.4% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 51.0% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.9% | 30.6% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 55.7% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 34.4% | +7.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Betis 47 / Real Sociedad 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.