Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-15 · 21:30 CET
LWWLD
WLDLWThe score model made a Sevilla win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sevilla 1.23 – 1.01 Rayo Vallecano.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla win | 41.4% | 39.3% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 30.7% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Rayo Vallecano win | 30.5% | 30.0% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.8% | 41.0% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.8% | 22.2% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.7% | 48.4% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.9% | 28.2% | -0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sevilla 47.6 / Rayo Vallecano 47.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.