Alaves vs Getafe
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-15 · 19:30 CET
LWDWW
WLWLDThe score model made an Alaves win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 28%). It finished 3:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alaves 1.03 – 0.80 Getafe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves win | 40.4% | 39.9% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.7% | 34.0% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Getafe win | 27.9% | 26.1% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27.9% | 29.8% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11.4% | 13.8% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 35.3% | 39.4% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.2% | 21.5% | -2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alaves 44.4 / Getafe 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.