Jeonnam vs Hwaseong
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-08-23 · 12:30 CET
LWDLL
WWWDDThe score model makes an Hwaseong win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Jeonnam win — 34.4% vs 27.5% implied (+6.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jeonnam 1.33 – 1.43 Hwaseong.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeonnam win | 34.4% | 27.5% | +6.9% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 26.9% | -0.2% |
| Hwaseong win | 39.0% | 45.7% | -6.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 53.2% | -1.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 32.8% | -2.7% |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 56.8% | -0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 36.5% | -4.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jeonnam 48.2 / Hwaseong 35.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.