UTA Arad vs Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-09-18 · 17:00 CET
LWLWW
LWLLDThe score model made a UTA Arad win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: UTA Arad 1.33 – 1.04 Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Arad win | 42.8% | 44.4% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 28.5% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win | 28.8% | 27.1% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.3% | 45.3% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.6% | 24.9% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.1% | 50.4% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 31.3% | -1.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: UTA Arad 46.9 / Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 22.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open UTA Arad vs Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.