Univ. Craiova vs FCSB
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-09-19 · 19:30 CET
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DLWWWThe score model made a Univ. Craiova win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 5:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Univ. Craiova 1.87 – 0.92 FCSB.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univ. Craiova win | 59.2% | 59.4% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 23.1% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| FCSB win | 17.9% | 17.6% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 55.1% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 34.1% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 53.8% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 38.4% | -3.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Univ. Craiova 47.8 / FCSB 47.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Univ. Craiova vs FCSB in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.