Petrolul vs Csikszereda M. Ciuc
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-09-21 · 20:00 CET
DWLDW
LLLDWThe score model made a Petrolul win the most likely outcome at 58%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Petrolul 1.65 – 0.79 Csikszereda M. Ciuc.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petrolul win | 57.5% | 60.3% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 22.9% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Csikszereda M. Ciuc win | 17.4% | 16.8% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 54.9% | -10.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.9% | 33.3% | -10.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.4% | 52.7% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 36.8% | -1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Petrolul 46.7 / Csikszereda M. Ciuc 32.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Petrolul vs Csikszereda M. Ciuc in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.