CFR Cluj vs FC Botosani
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-09-19 · 16:30 CET
LWLWL
DLWLLThe score model made a CFR Cluj win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CFR Cluj 1.85 – 0.88 FC Botosani.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFR Cluj win | 60.0% | 45.9% | +14.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 26.4% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| FC Botosani win | 17.1% | 27.7% | -10.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 51.7% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.3% | 30.9% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 55.6% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.4% | 35.9% | -0.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CFR Cluj 46.5 / FC Botosani 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open CFR Cluj vs FC Botosani in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.