U. Cluj vs FC Botosani
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-03 · 17:30 CET
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DLWDWThe score model made an U. Cluj win the most likely outcome at 61%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: U. Cluj 1.73 – 0.73 FC Botosani.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Cluj win | 61.0% | 50.1% | +10.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.7% | 27.2% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| FC Botosani win | 15.3% | 22.7% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.6% | 46.3% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.4% | 26.2% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.9% | 50.0% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.7% | 31.8% | +1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: U. Cluj 45.4 / FC Botosani 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.