FCSB vs Farul Constanta
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-03 · 20:30 CET
DWLLL
WDDDDThe score model made an FCSB win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FCSB 1.84 – 0.91 Farul Constanta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCSB win | 59.1% | 53.0% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 25.3% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Farul Constanta win | 18.0% | 21.7% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | 52.8% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.7% | 32.2% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | 53.9% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.6% | 36.7% | +5.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FCSB 44.6 / Farul Constanta 45.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.