FC Arges vs Csikszereda M. Ciuc
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-07-31 · 17:30 CET
WDLLL
LDLLLThe score model made an FC Arges win the most likely outcome at 61%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Arges 1.61 – 0.63 Csikszereda M. Ciuc.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arges win | 60.9% | 55.5% | +5.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 26.3% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Csikszereda M. Ciuc win | 14.2% | 18.2% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.8% | 42.3% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.8% | 22.9% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.6% | 44.0% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 29.7% | +4.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Arges 32 / Csikszereda M. Ciuc 28.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.