FAR Rabat vs IR Tanger
Botola Pro, Morocco · 2026-10-28 · 21:00 CET
DLDWD
WWDLWThe score model makes an FAR Rabat win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 51.4% vs 44.9% implied (+6.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FAR Rabat 1.66 – 0.96 IR Tanger.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAR Rabat win | 52.5% | 60.8% | -8.4% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 24.4% | +3.1% |
| IR Tanger win | 20.1% | 14.8% | +5.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 47.0% | +1.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 26.4% | +0.5% |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 44.9% | +6.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.7% | 32.3% | -0.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: FAR Rabat 36.7 / IR Tanger 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FAR Rabat vs IR Tanger in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.