Union Touarga vs Wydad
Botola Pro, Morocco · 2026-10-24 · 20:00 CET
WWWDL
WDWWWThe score model made a Wydad win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Union Touarga 0.87 – 1.34 Wydad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Touarga win | 22.6% | 27.5% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.7% | 32.6% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Wydad win | 45.7% | 40.0% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.1% | 36.9% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.3% | 19.2% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% | 44.2% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.4% | 26.1% | +3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Union Touarga 38.5 / Wydad 19 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Union Touarga vs Wydad in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.