Hegelmann vs Suduva
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-09-20 · 13:15 CET
LDDLL
LDDLLThe score model made a Suduva win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hegelmann 1.15 – 1.32 Suduva.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hegelmann win | 31.5% | 19.5% | +12.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.2% | 25.6% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Suduva win | 39.3% | 54.9% | -15.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 49.0% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 29.2% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 49.6% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.4% | 34.2% | -9.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hegelmann 51.4 / Suduva 51.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hegelmann vs Suduva in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.