FA Siauliai vs Kauno Zalgiris
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-09-20 · 15:00 CET
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WWLWWThe score model made a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely outcome at 71%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FA Siauliai 0.73 – 2.25 Kauno Zalgiris.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FA Siauliai win | 9.8% | 10.0% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.9% | 16.8% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Kauno Zalgiris win | 71.3% | 73.2% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | 63.4% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.9% | 44.7% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 50.1% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.4% | 45.0% | -3.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FA Siauliai 24.4 / Kauno Zalgiris 51.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FA Siauliai vs Kauno Zalgiris in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.