FK Panevezys vs Dziugas Telsiai
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-03 · 18:30 CET
LWWWL
WLLDLThe score model made an FK Panevezys win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FK Panevezys 1.29 – 1.11 Dziugas Telsiai.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Panevezys win | 39.9% | 29.9% | +10.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.3% | 28.6% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Dziugas Telsiai win | 30.8% | 41.5% | -10.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | 47.8% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% | 28.2% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | 53.0% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.7% | 33.4% | +0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FK Panevezys 49.7 / Dziugas Telsiai 50.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.