FK Panevezys vs Dziugas Telsiai
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-03 · 16:30
The score model makes a FK Panevezys win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FK Panevezys 1.29 – 1.10 Dziugas Telsiai.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Panevezys win | 40.0% | 29.7% | +10.3% |
| Draw | 29.3% | 28.8% | +0.5% |
| Dziugas Telsiai win | 30.7% | 41.5% | -10.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | 47.7% | -4.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% | 27.7% | -5.6% |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | 52.4% | -3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 33.3% | +0.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FK Panevezys 49.9 / Dziugas Telsiai 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.