Cremonese vs Padova
Serie B, Italy · 2026-09-06 · 19:30 CET
DWLLL
LWWWDThe score model made a Cremonese win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cremonese 1.47 – 0.84 Padova.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cremonese win | 50.3% | 49.7% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.3% | 27.8% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Padova win | 20.3% | 22.5% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.7% | 47.4% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | 26.7% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.2% | 50.8% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.2% | 32.3% | +0.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cremonese 19.9 / Padova 26.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.