Cesena vs Mantova
Serie B, Italy · 2026-09-06 · 15:00 CET
DDLDW
WWLWWThe score model made a Cesena win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cesena 1.55 – 1.25 Mantova.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 42.9% | 34.2% | +8.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 28.1% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Mantova win | 29.5% | 37.7% | -8.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 53.9% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.9% | 33.4% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | 58.3% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.5% | 36.0% | +3.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cesena 38 / Mantova 38.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.