Torino vs Lecce
Serie A, Italy · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
DWWWL
LLWLLThe score model makes a Torino win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 75.4% vs 69.9% implied (+5.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Torino 1.50 – 1.02 Lecce.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torino win | 47.9% | 49.0% | -1.1% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 25.9% | +0.5% |
| Lecce win | 25.8% | 25.1% | +0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 50.3% | -4.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 30.1% | -5.5% |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 52.8% | -2.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.3% | 34.2% | -2.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Torino 48.9 / Lecce 48.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Torino vs Lecce in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.