Parma vs Bologna
Serie A, Italy · 2026-11-07 · 18:00 CET
WLLLD
DWLWWThe score model makes a Bologna win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Bologna win — 49.1% vs 46.2% implied (+2.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Parma 0.99 – 1.51 Bologna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma win | 24.7% | 26.5% | -1.8% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 27.3% | -1.1% |
| Bologna win | 49.1% | 46.2% | +2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 45.5% | +0.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 25.4% | -1.0% |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | 49.5% | -0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 31.4% | -2.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Parma 41.4 / Bologna 49 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Parma vs Bologna in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.