Cagliari vs Frosinone
Serie A, Italy · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
WDLLL
WLWDWThe score model makes a Frosinone win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Frosinone win — 51.5% vs 31.8% implied (+19.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cagliari 1.41 – 2.02 Frosinone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari win | 26.7% | 44.4% | -17.6% |
| Draw | 21.8% | 23.9% | -2.1% |
| Frosinone win | 51.5% | 31.8% | +19.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.6% | 67.6% | -1.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.8% | 46.6% | -1.8% |
| Both teams to score | 65.7% | 67.4% | -1.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.8% | 45.8% | -2.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Cagliari 46.8 / Frosinone 13.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cagliari vs Frosinone in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.