AS Roma vs Sassuolo
Serie A, Italy · 2026-11-07 · 20:45 CET
DDWDW
LDLLLThe score model makes an AS Roma win the most likely outcome at 75%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). The data's biggest gap to the market: AS Roma win — 74.5% vs 64.4% implied (+10.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AS Roma 2.64 – 0.89 Sassuolo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 74.5% | 64.4% | +10.1% |
| Draw | 15.3% | 19.9% | -4.6% |
| Sassuolo win | 10.2% | 15.7% | -5.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.4% | 63.9% | +4.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.9% | 42.4% | +4.5% |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 57.4% | -2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.6% | 43.2% | +1.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: AS Roma 48.9 / Sassuolo 37.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open AS Roma vs Sassuolo in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.