Venezia vs Udinese
Serie A, Italy · 2026-11-06 · 20:45 CET
LLWLL
LLLLDThe score model makes a Udinese win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Udinese win — 37.9% vs 31.7% implied (+6.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Venezia 1.30 – 1.35 Udinese.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia win | 35.7% | 40.3% | -4.7% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 27.9% | -1.5% |
| Udinese win | 37.9% | 31.7% | +6.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 46.6% | +2.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.5% | 26.8% | +0.8% |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | 51.3% | +2.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.5% | 32.2% | +2.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Venezia 19.4 / Udinese 48.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Venezia vs Udinese in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.