Parma vs Genoa
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-20 · 15:00 CET
LWLLL
DLWLWThe score model made a Genoa win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Parma 0.96 – 1.02 Genoa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma win | 32.8% | 30.9% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.1% | 31.7% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Genoa win | 36.0% | 37.4% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.7% | 38.3% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.9% | 19.7% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.4% | 46.8% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 52.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 16.8% | 26.3% | -9.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Parma 39.5 / Genoa 45.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Parma vs Genoa in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.