Fiorentina vs Napoli
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-20 · 12:30 CET
WDLLL
WDWLDThe score model made a Napoli win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fiorentina 1.03 – 1.52 Napoli.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina win | 25.7% | 29.7% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 27.9% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Napoli win | 48.5% | 42.4% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 52.0% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% | 31.6% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 56.7% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 35.3% | -2.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fiorentina 48 / Napoli 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Fiorentina vs Napoli in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.