AC Milan vs Lecce
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-20 · 20:45 CET
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WLLWLThe score model made an AC Milan win the most likely outcome at 63%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AC Milan 1.73 – 0.68 Lecce.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 62.7% | 75.7% | -13.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 16.0% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Lecce win | 14.1% | 8.2% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.2% | 59.6% | -16.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.3% | 38.5% | -16.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 40.5% | 44.6% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 40.3% | -13.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AC Milan 48 / Lecce 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open AC Milan vs Lecce in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.