Udinese vs Cagliari
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-19 · 15:00 CET
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WWDLLThe score model made a Udinese win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Udinese 1.36 – 1.13 Cagliari.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese win | 41.9% | 42.6% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 29.0% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Cagliari win | 31.1% | 28.3% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 46.5% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 26.3% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 52.0% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 31.6% | -2.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Udinese 48 / Cagliari 45.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Udinese vs Cagliari in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.