Bologna vs Torino
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-19 · 15:00 CET
LDWLW
LDWWWThe score model made a Bologna win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bologna 1.51 – 0.99 Torino.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna win | 49.2% | 49.0% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 28.4% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Torino win | 24.7% | 22.6% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 44.2% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.1% | 24.4% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 48.9% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.9% | 30.5% | -5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bologna 48.2 / Torino 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bologna vs Torino in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.