AS Roma vs Inter
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-19 · 18:00 CET
WDDWD
WWDWWThe score model made an Inter win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AS Roma 1.36 – 1.51 Inter.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 34.1% | 36.1% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 27.2% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Inter win | 40.9% | 36.7% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% | 59.1% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.5% | 39.5% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 63.0% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 40.6% | -7.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AS Roma 48.1 / Inter 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open AS Roma vs Inter in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.