Lecce vs Monza
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-13 · 15:00 CET
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LLLLDThe score model makes a Lecce win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 36%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 56.9% vs 50.5% implied (+6.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lecce 1.12 – 1.02 Monza.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce win | 37.5% | 37.1% | +0.4% |
| Draw | 29.8% | 30.3% | -0.5% |
| Monza win | 32.7% | 32.6% | +0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.1% | 42.1% | -6.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.9% | 22.5% | -5.7% |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | 49.5% | -6.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 28.9% | -0.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lecce 48.2 / Monza 23.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.