Udinese vs Lazio
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-07 · 20:45 CET
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LWWWWThe score model made a Lazio win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Udinese 1.05 – 1.24 Lazio.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese win | 30.9% | 34.3% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.5% | 31.1% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Lazio win | 40.6% | 34.6% | +6.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.2% | 42.7% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.9% | 23.3% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 50.5% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.3% | 29.5% | -4.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Udinese 47.3 / Lazio 47.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.