AS Roma vs Fiorentina
Serie A, Italy · 2026-08-24 · 20:45 CET
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WDLLLThe score model made an AS Roma win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 4:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AS Roma 1.58 – 0.94 Fiorentina.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 52.3% | 55.5% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 25.1% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Fiorentina win | 22.0% | 19.4% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 50.4% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.7% | 29.6% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 51.6% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.3% | 34.5% | -5.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AS Roma 46.7 / Fiorentina 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.