Torino vs AC Milan
Serie A, Italy · 2026-08-23 · 20:45 CET
LDLLW
WLWWDThe score model made an AC Milan win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Torino 1.02 – 1.57 AC Milan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino win | 24.4% | 22.1% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 27.8% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| AC Milan win | 49.7% | 50.1% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 46.4% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.2% | 25.9% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 50.8% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 31.4% | -2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Torino 46.8 / AC Milan 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.