Atalanta vs Sassuolo
Serie A, Italy · 2026-08-23 · 20:45 CET
LDWWL
LLLWDThe score model made an Atalanta win the most likely outcome at 61%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atalanta 1.96 – 0.93 Sassuolo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta win | 61.1% | 61.1% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.9% | 22.6% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Sassuolo win | 17.0% | 16.3% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 55.7% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.9% | 34.5% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 52.8% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.0% | 37.7% | +3.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atalanta 46.8 / Sassuolo 34.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.