Inter vs Monza
Serie A, Italy · 2026-08-22 · 18:30 CET
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LLLLDThe score model made an Inter win the most likely outcome at 83%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 4:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Inter 2.91 – 0.67 Monza.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter win | 82.5% | 81.0% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 11.8% | 12.9% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Monza win | 5.7% | 6.1% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.4% | 62.4% | +7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.1% | 41.0% | +7.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 41.0% | +5.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.3% | 42.1% | +2.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Inter 47 / Monza 21.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.