Karcagi vs Kozarmisleny SE
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-09-20 · 16:00 CET
LDLLL
WDLWLThe score model made a Karcagi win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Karcagi 1.44 – 1.26 Kozarmisleny SE.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karcagi win | 41.9% | 49.2% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 25.2% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Kozarmisleny SE win | 33.2% | 25.6% | +7.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 50.4% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 30.6% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | 52.5% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.8% | 35.2% | -9.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Karcagi 24.9 / Kozarmisleny SE 41.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Karcagi vs Kozarmisleny SE in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.