Mezokovesd-Zsory vs Kazincbarcika
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-09-19 · 17:00 CET
LWDDW
DLWDWThe score model made a Mezokovesd-Zsory win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 4:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mezokovesd-Zsory 1.19 – 1.12 Kazincbarcika.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mezokovesd-Zsory win | 38.1% | 35.7% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.7% | 29.7% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Kazincbarcika win | 34.2% | 34.6% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.7% | 46.7% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | 27.9% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.6% | 52.2% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 33.7% | -4.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mezokovesd-Zsory 33.3 / Kazincbarcika 23.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Mezokovesd-Zsory vs Kazincbarcika in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.