Ajka vs Karcagi
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-08-08 · 17:30 CET
DDWWL
DDWWLThe score model made an Ajka win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ajka 1.10 – 0.83 Karcagi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajka win | 41.3% | 48.3% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.6% | 28.3% | +3.3% | ✓ |
| Karcagi win | 27.1% | 23.4% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.4% | 43.6% | -13.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.1% | 24.9% | -11.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.9% | 47.6% | -9.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.5% | 30.8% | -5.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ajka 39.5 / Karcagi 21.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.