Gyirmot vs Kozarmisleny SE
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-08-01 · 19:00 CET
DWLLW
LLLLWThe score model made a Gyirmot win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gyirmot 1.72 – 1.36 Kozarmisleny SE.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gyirmot win | 46.1% | 44.9% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 26.5% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Kozarmisleny SE win | 30.2% | 28.6% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | 52.7% | +6.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.1% | 32.0% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 55.6% | +5.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 35.5% | +4.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gyirmot 20 / Kozarmisleny SE 40.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.