Union Berlin W vs RB Leipzig W
Frauen-Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-20 · 18:30 CET
LWWWD
WLWWLThe score model made a Union Berlin W win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Union Berlin W 1.64 – 1.43 RB Leipzig W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin W win | 42.5% | 49.3% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 25.1% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| RB Leipzig W win | 33.2% | 25.6% | +7.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 59.0% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.0% | 39.1% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | 60.0% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.4% | 41.1% | +2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Union Berlin W 19.8 / RB Leipzig W 30.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Union Berlin W vs RB Leipzig W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.